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What does Turkey want?
Turkey has two main goals in northeast Syria: to drive the Kurdish YPG militia which it deems a security threat away from its border, and to create a space inside Syria where 2 million (out of nearly 4 million) Syria refugees, currently hosted in Turkey, can be settled.
It had been pushing the United States to join a “safe zone” extending 20 miles (32 km) into Syrian territory, but repeatedly warned it could take unilateral military action after accusing Washington of dragging its feet.
President Tayyip Erdogan has recently talked about pushing even deeper into Syria, beyond the proposed “safe zone” region to the cities of Raqqa and Deir al-Zor.
https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/113
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkey/turkey-continues-to-be-top-refugee-hosting-country-/1510602
How far could Turkey go?
The northeastern border region, currently controlled by Kurdish-led forces, stretches 480 km (300 miles) from the Euphrates river in the west to the Iraq border to the east.
The immediate focus of Turkey’s military plans appears to be around a section of the border between the towns of Ras al Ain and Tel Abyad, which are about 100 km (62 miles) apart. A U.S. official told Reuters on Monday U.S. forces had withdrawn from observation posts there.
As well as air strikes on Ras al Ain on Wednesday, a witness in Tel Abyad said the sound of explosions rang out there and residents fled.
Although under the control of Kurdish-led forces, that part of the border has historically had a strong Arab presence.
“It’s a region where the population is Arab and where Turkey has good ties with the leading groups,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli of the German Marshall Fund. If the YPG tries to hold territory there “it will lose a lot of blood,” he said.
Do Russia and Iran back Turkey’s move?
Russia and Iran, the other two major foreign powers in Syria, strongly support President Bashar al-Assad – unlike Turkey and the United States which both called for him to stand down and supported rebels fighting to overthrow him.
Russia has said that Turkey has the right to defend itself, but Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that Syria’s territorial integrity must be preserved and that all foreign military forces “with illegal presence” should leave Syria.
If the U.S. pulls out all its troops from northeast Syria, the Damascus government – backed by Russia – may try to retake control of much of the region not seized by Turkey.
The Western Reaction to Turkey’s plan is quite negative. There has been no public support from Turkey’s allies (!) so far. A senior U.S. State Department official described the plan as “probably the craziest idea I’ve ever heard”.
The United Nations regional coordinator for the Syria crisis said all sides should avoid major displacement of civilians if Turkey launches an assault! What assault are they talking about?
Who created the ‘Fuck up’ in Syria. Turkey?
Who gave the weapons to terrorist groups in the region? Turkey?
Who caused all these Syrian réfugiés leaving their own country? Turkey?
Who had to accept nearly 4 million Syrian refugees while the other countries have been reluctant to take them? Turkey.
Did Europe give Turkey what they had promised to give? No. Turkey is 100% right in its actions.
The Western allies of Turkey should put themselves in the shoes of Turkey and reconsider the situation.
Elsewhere, Moscow and Ankara inked an agreement on using Russian rubles and Turkish lira in mutual payments and settlements, the Russian Finance Ministry announced on Tuesday.
The deal is aimed at gradually switching to using national currencies in mutual trade, the ministry said. Trade turnover between the two countries grew by 16 percent last year, reaching $25.5 billion.
According to the ministry, the agreement aims for “further expansion and strengthening of interbank interaction, as well as ensuring uninterrupted payments between business entities of the two countries.”
Today the Swiss Franc (Swissie) has just begun showing some reaction to ongoing developments as a safe haven currency.
Gold prices rise and there’s an imminent risk above 1510/1512 while the risk for the oil is definitely on the downside. Watch 56.75/80 which is 200 day moving average.
https://www.ifcmarkets.co.in/en/market-data/commodities-prices/brent
The Jpy / Oil correlation since the last Fed decision is likely to continue in the coming days (Jpy higher, oil lower). Try is under pressure. State banks are seen selling Usd vs Try but think the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) will soon be obliged to hike rates.
Stay lucky
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